A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
