Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.
